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How to Know If Your Next Gig Will Make Money (Before You Load the Van)

How to Know If Your Next Gig Will Make Money (Before You Load the Van)

Published on October 31, 2026

Most bands find out whether a show paid after it ends, usually in a parking lot, splitting crumpled cash four ways. You can know before you say yes. It takes a few minutes and one honest list.

1. Write down every dollar coming in

  • Guarantee: the fixed amount the venue or promoter pays, no matter the turnout.
  • Door: ticket price × paid attendance × your share of the door. A "70/30 split" means you get 70% of the door. Ask whether that's before or after the venue's costs. It changes everything.
  • Merch: be realistic. Use what you sold at your last comparable show, not your best night.

2. Write down every dollar going out

Gas or a rental, parking, a hotel or couch-tax beer, a sound tech or a friend helping load, ticketing fees, food, strings, the "we forgot a cable" stop. Then add merch cost: the shirts you sell weren't free. If someone takes a commission (agent or manager), check your agreement for exactly which income it applies to.

3. Net = in − out. Then split it

Divide by the number of people who actually share the money. If the net per person is less than what everyone loses by skipping a shift at work, that's a real decision, not a failure. Some shows are investments (a great support slot, a new city). Just make that choice on purpose.

4. Find your break-even ticket count

If costs exceed the guarantee plus merch profit, each paid ticket covers (ticket price × your door share). Divide the gap by that number and round up. That's how many people you need through the door. If the answer is 140 and the room holds 80, you've learned something important before you booked the van.

5. A worked example (made-up numbers)

Guarantee $150. Tickets $12 with 60 paid at a 70% split, which makes $504 at the door. Merch $380 gross. Costs: merch $140, travel $110, parking $20, crew $80, fees $25, food $60 and misc $15, which totals $450. Net: $584, or $146 each for four people.

Do it faster

We built a free Gig Profit Calculator. Plug in the numbers above and it shows your net, per-member split and break-even ticket count. You don't need to sign up, and the dollar amounts you enter are not sent to us.

Planning estimate, not financial advice.

Free Gig Profit Calculator




Category: Money & Gigs

Tags: gig money , break-even , calculator

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